Дослідження динаміки захворюваності на COVID-19 в Україні під час військового стану (Study of the dynamics of the incidence of covid-19 in Ukraine during martial law)

Гаврильчик, Леонід (Leonid Havrylchyk) (2022) Дослідження динаміки захворюваності на COVID-19 в Україні під час військового стану (Study of the dynamics of the incidence of covid-19 in Ukraine during martial law). Наукові записки Національного університету «Острозька академія». Серія «Економіка»: науковий журнал (27(55)). pp. 89-95. ISSN 2311-5149

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COVID-19 серйозно вплинув на різні аспекти нашого життя, і першочергово включаючи саме здоров’я людей по
всьому світу. Високий рівень передачі та поки відсутність ефективних терапевтичних засобів кинули виклик всьому
людству. COVID-19 є інфекційною хворобою, яка вперше була виявлена в грудні 2019 р. в місті Ухань, Китай, після
чого вірус швидко поширився на весь світ. Уже 30 січня 2020 р. Всесвітня організація охорони здоров’я (ВООЗ) оголосила спалах надзвичайною ситуацією у сфері громадського здоров’я інтернаціонального масштабу, а 11 березня
2020 р. – глобальною пандемією. У порівнянні з іншими гострими респіраторними захворюваннями, як-от: SARS або
MERS, COVID-19 поширюється швидше завдяки посиленим процесам глобалізації.
(COVID-19 has seriously affected various aspects of our lives, and above all the health of people around the world. The high level of transmission and so far, the lack of effective therapeutic agents have challenged all mankind. COVID-19 is an infectious disease that was first detected in December 2019 in Wuhan, China, after which the virus quickly spread around the world. On January 30, 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared an international public health emergency outbreak, and on March 11, 2020, a global pandemic. Compared to other acute respiratory diseases, such as SARS or MERS, COVID-19 is spreading faster due to increased globalization. According to reports of the first 40 cases of COVID-19, the majority of infected patients (73%) were males, and less than half (i.e., 32%) had comorbidities such as diabetes, hypertension,
and cardiovascular diseases. It is also reported that the average age of patients was 49 years. The mortality rate in this group was almost 2%. In Ukraine, the first cases date back to March 3, 2020. Since the beginning of the epidemic in Ukraine, the average mortality rate was almost 3.5%, and the average age of patients was 41 years. On the night of February 24, 2022, after the Russian leader addressed his citizens, Russia launched a large-scale offensive on the territory of Ukraine. Martial law was declared by presidential decree at 05:30 on the same day throughout the controlled territory of Ukraine. Following
the declaration of martial law, most businesses, food and entertainment establishments were forced to suspend operations due to the threat of airstrikes. Educational institutions of various levels were forced to close on vacation, and later open only for distance learning to prevent the accumulation of large masses of people in one place. As for the incidence statistics for
COVID-19, at the beginning of the war, they didn't update at all or were limited updated. Therefore, it is now very important to know what the dynamics of the disease should be expected. To study these dynamics, we will use the SIR model, based on the results of which it will be possible to forecast what to expect from COVID-19.)

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: COVID-19, SIR-модель, пандемія, військовий стан (COVID-19, SIR model, pandemic, martial law)
Subjects: by fields of science > Mathematics
Divisions: The College of Economics Management
Depositing User: Галина Цеп'юк
Date Deposited: 06 Feb 2023 13:55
Last Modified: 06 Feb 2023 13:55
URI: https://eprints.oa.edu.ua/id/eprint/8806

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